BROOKFIELD, Wis.–(EON: Enhanced Online News)–Fiserv, Inc. (NASDAQ:FISV) today released an analysis of home price trends in more than 375 U.S. markets based on the Fiserv® Case-Shiller Indexes®. The indexes are owned and generated by Fiserv, the leading global provider of financial services technology solutions, and data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).

via Fiserv Case-Shiller Home Price Insights: U.S. Single Family Home Prices Up 3.6 Percent, but Double-Dip Decline Expected In Many Markets | EON: Enhanced Online News.

On a daily basis, we are asked when we think the market is going to come back. The short answer is “we don’t know”. The long answer takes a little more looking into the past to try and come up with a prediction of what may happen.

Is the market going to come back anytime soon? : Badgley & Badgley.

A new report from Zillow research predicts a further decline in home prices because of increased foreclosures and high inventory. More than 1.17 out of every 1,000 homes in the U.S. were liquidated in September, the highest number since 1996. Furthermore, the high level of foreclosures is expected to remain elevated as the number of homes with negative equity increased to 23.2%, up from 22.5% in the second quarter. This surge in distressed sales has taken its toll on Zillow’s Home Value Index, which dropped 0.4% from August to September and 4.3% from September 2009. The firm expects the decline to continue into 2011 with a potential bottom sometime in the first half at the earliest.

US Housing Market Reaches Depression-Era Milestone | Black Swan Insights.

The firm that makes the Case Shiller Index has joined the consensus that 2011 will be a terrible year for housing.

2012 will be pretty bad too.

Fiserv forecasts a 7.1 percent drop in national home prices from Q2 ’10 to the Q2 ’11. In the following 12 months, Fiserv forecasts a slight national increase — but major markets, including the following 15 disaster areas, will keep falling.

From the housing peak to 2012, markets in Florida, Nevada and California will be down around 60 percent.

via These Are The 15 Housing Markets That Will Get Crushed The Hardest By 2012.

US housing could suffer a double-digit price drop in 2011, according to Standard & Poor, weighed down by the burden distressed properties and a hangover from the homebuyer credit. Price gains in the strongest metro areas have been overshadowed by losses in the vast majority of US markets.

via National Home Prices Could Decline By Double Digits In 2011.

an Diego County single-family-home prices are facing an 8.5 percent fall over the next year now that buyers no longer have access to state and federal tax credits, Fiserv economists predicted Monday.

Fiserv, which provides the data for the widely watched Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, said San Diego prices rose 11.6 percent from the second quarter of 2009 to the second quarter this year. But a double-dip is now in the works for various reasons.

via San Diego housing faces 8.5% price reduction – SignOnSanDiego.com.

When Robert Shiller, Yale economist and co-creator of the revered S&P Case-Shiller index speaks, the real estate world listens.

The last time the Case-Shiller housing price index came out, 12 of the 20 U.S. cities tracked showed decelerations — meaning prices in those cities have been flat for more than a year. With the first-time homebuyer’s credit in our rear-view mirror, Shiller says that he is worried the housing market could see a downturn in prices because no one knows what new stresses lie ahead, especially with newcomers in Washington.

“The homebuyer credit did create an end to declining home prices, but it didn’t create a strong enough recovery,” Shiller told GuruFocus.

Then there’s hedge fund titan John Paulson, who thinks everyone ought to be out there buying homes and gearing up for housing inflation. The man who made billions betting against the sub-prime mortgage market said just this summer that we are in the midst of a sustained recovery, with a less than 10 percent risk of a double-dip recession.

Housing Market: Robert Shiller Still Wary.

The end of the federal home buyers’ tax credit pulled the rug out from under Philadelphia real estate sales and prices in the third quarter, data gleaned from city records show.

From July through September, the typical home sold in Philadelphia fell in value by an average 4.6 percent from second-quarter levels and was down 3.3 percent from 2009′s third quarter, economist Kevin Gillen, vice president of Econsult Corp. in Philadelphia, said Wednesday.

“This most recent decline more than eliminates the gains from the previous quarter, in which prices rose 3.8 percent as buyers sought to take advantage of the federal tax credit before its expiration in June,” he said.

Philadelphia real estate sales, prices fall after tax credit expiration | Philadelphia Inquirer | 11/04/2010.

One of my favorite home price indicators is Altos Research’s 10 city composite. It is a leading indicator for Case-Shiller. Today Altos Research reported more bad news for the housing market with price declines reported in 25 of 26 markets. Overall, nationwide prices fell 1.6% in October and are no down 3.09% over the last three months.

via Home Prices Decline 1.6% In October–Altos Research | Black Swan Insights.

According to Clear Capital from a report via Housingwire.com, home prices declined 5 percent between August and October. According to the article prices have declined 6.8 percent from the market’s peak in mid-August. Additionally, Altos Research found that the average home price is down 1.6 percent from September to October. Last month Core Logic showed prices declining 1.5 percent in from August 2009 to August 2010. All these reports have slightly different methodologies and come up with somewhat differing numbers. The main takeaway is that they are all trending in the same direction: downward.

Housing Prices Fall Again | Mortgage Rates & Trends: Mortgage Blog.

Home sales this fall are certain to be well below last year, analysts said, and the expiration of home buyers’ tax credits now leaves the market on its own to face the formidable headwinds of high unemployment and tight credit.

via Uneasy future for Mass. housing market – The Boston Globe.

Fiserv Inc. has released an analysis of home price trends in more than 375 U.S. markets based on the Fiserv Case-Shiller Index. The indexes are owned and generated by Fiserv, a provider of financial services technology solutions and data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). In the second quarter of 2010, U.S. single-family home prices rose an average of 3.6 percent over the year-ago quarter, driven by strong price increases in relatively high-priced markets, such as San Diego; Washington, D.C. and the San Francisco Bay Area. But despite the gain in the national average, prices actually fell in 70 percent of the 384 metro areas, compared to the 2009 second quarter. Many markets experienced double-digit drops, including Detroit; Boise, Idaho; Reno, Nev. and many smaller markets in Florida and Oregon.

Fiserv Case-Shiller Study Finds Double-Dip Decline Expected in Many Markets | Mortgage News | Daily National and State Headlines.

Ohio is one of the states hardest hit by the practice of mortgage companies walking away from foreclosures they’ve already started, leaving homeowners and communities to deal with the blight and costly fallout.

A new federal report found that more than 50 percent of abandoned foreclosures that it identified were in Ohio, Michigan and Indiana.

Walkaways typically happen when lenders or mortgage servicers foreclose on a house but don’t buy it or take it to sheriff’s sale to see if someone else will.
The properties can become vacant, dangerous and corrosive eyesores that depress values of nearby homes, increase costs for local governments, and decrease property tax revenues. Meanwhile homeowners who thought they lost their houses may be surprised to later learn that the property remains in their names and they’re are on the hook for taxes and possible code violations.

via Federal study says mortgage companies could help reduce abandoned foreclosures | cleveland.com.

The Community Clearinghouse Agency Inc. of Lancaster, Pa., is offering a new zero interest mortgage service to people wanting to buy their first home or to those dealing with foreclosure.
The essence of the new service is the mortgage holder would make payments that are applied strictly to the principal. The prospective homebuyer finds a property, submits a bid, and negotiates as usual. Where the process differs is the agency, in fact, buys the property and then turns it over to the zero interest mortgage holder. Only single family homes qualify under this plan. Concerning foreclosures, the service is valid only if the foreclosure is dissolved and the debt to the lending institution is decreased.
Mortgage holders can own their home outright within 12 years, as opposed to 30 , under this plan. this can be done because CCA stipulates that additional payments can be made during the year without suffering penalties.

via Zero Interest Mortgage Available For Single Family Homes and Foreclosures – New Info | Star Global Tribune.

When it comes to calling bubbles, Yale professor Robert Shiller has a pretty good track record. He raised a red flag about Internet stocks just before the market crashed in 2000, and he called the housing bubble in 2006 — again, just before prices tumbled. Now the co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price index says the foreclosure crisis is another chapter in the story of mistrust of financial institutions that was ushered in with the financial crisis and the recession. And with so little confidence in the housing market, he says, prices have further to fall. In an interview with Kiplinger, Shiller shares his views on how foreclosure-gate could lead to another bailout, why the housing market won’t recover in 2011, and why he sees a good chance of a double-dip recession.

Robert Shiller Sees More Housing Pain Ahead – Kiplinger.

Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the global financial crisis, said another “disaster” will happen if U.S. house prices fall again and prime mortgage defaults increase.

“If house prices are going to fall another 5% to 10%, another eight million households are going to be in negative equity,” Mr. Roubini said on Tuesday at a conference in Cape Town. “We are going to have another nasty crisis. That’s going to happen unless we do something about it. Forget about subprime, look at prime.”

Roubini sees another ‘disaster’ if house prices drop.

Despite the unsubstantiated ravings of the real estate bulls who have stepped up their vocalizations of late, the facts surrounding the future of real estate remain indisputable. Debt levels remain too high, savings too low, home ownership at record high levels, global economy still surviving on government stimulus, fundamentals all well above long term means (with the exception of affordability which is at the upper range of its historic range, but only because of….) record low interest rates. None of this is sustainable.

A Home Without Equity Is Just a Rental With Debt | Financial Insights.

The question on the lips of many homeowners in America is: How much longer will my home’s value be sliding down the drain?

No one knows, of course. But a useful activity — even if it’s not comforting — is watching the direction of housing prices around the country.

via Is your home’s price still dropping?- Home financing – MSN Money.

Recent hopeful signs in the housing market have taken a back seat to headlines over foreclosure robo-signers. With major mortgage servicers suspending foreclosures, at least temporarily, hopes for a sustained housing recover have begun to fade.

Add to that a still weak economy with stubbornly high unemployment, more strict mortgage requirements and soft prices, and more housing analysts are beginning to doubt that a recovery is at hand.

Fiserv, a market analytics company, recently revised its 2011 housing forecast, calling for a more than seven percent decline in home prices. That’s on top of more than 50 percent declines in some of the harder hit markets.

Is There Any Hope For Housing?.

Yale Professor and co-creator of the S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index was on Tech Ticker (w/ Aaron Taks) outside the Buttonwood Conference. He said if home prices go down another 5% that would put stress on financial institutions going forward. Shiller also mentioned the liquidity trap, or the lack of confidence to borrow money even at extremely low interest rates.

via Yale’s Robert Shiller on the Liquidity Trap, Home Price Index (Buttonwood Gathering).

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — The robo-signing controversy is just another issue that the already sluggish housing market didn’t need — but most analysts do not think it will have far-reaching impact.

Nevertheless, the housing market still faces many problems: a weak economy, sluggish hiring, tight mortgage underwriting, falling home prices, and slowing sales.

via U.S. home prices expected to slide another 8% – Nov. 1, 2010.

First we’ll start with what the heck “Behavioral Economics Theory of Myopic Loss Aversion” means.

According to a recent blog post on Trulia, Behavioral Economics Theory of Myopic Loss Aversion is one reason why home buyers are not jumping into the home buying market in droves with all the deals on the market. The post suggests that home buyers are humans (which they are) and that humans are prone to behaving a particular way: humans wait to long to take advantage of a deal because we wait for the “best” or bottom price of the deal, meanwhile missing the bottom and then we either scramble to buy the item as the prices starts to go up, or we don’t do anything and say to ourselves – “I wish I had.” We may even add something like: “I never get a good deal.” But here I’ll stop with the human nature analogy.

What Does Behavioral Economics Theory of Myopic Loss Aversion Have To Do With Selling Your Home?.

Here are some analysts’ views on the market, as reported by CNNMoney:

* Fiserv, a market analytics company, had forecast price gains of 4% in February. Their latest prediction is for a 7.1% drop in prices.

* The S&P/Case Shiller report saw prices fall 0.2% in August.

* Mark Zandi with Moody’s Analytics is forecasting another 8% drop in prices, which will put the peak-to-trough decline at 34%.

* Nearly one million homes are expected to be repossessed this year.

via Will Home Prices Keep Falling? – BloggingStocks.

The economy is in trouble, and there’s little the Federal Reserve can do about it, says esteemed Yale economist Robert Shiller.

Economic growth slowed in both the first and second quarters, he notes in an interview with Yahoo’s Tech Ticker. “That’s not a very strong indicator, but it does suggest a recession may be coming soon,” Shiller explains. “Things are looking weaker now.”

As for the Fed, it already has pushed short-term interest rates to zero. “So they can’t do anything more about it,” Shiller says.

“They’re pushing on a string. It’s just not enough. If people don’t want to spend, if they aren’t confident about the future, even if you offer them a zero borrowing rate, they don’t want it.”

That situation amounts to a “liquidity trap,” a phrase legendary economist John Maynard Keynes coined to describe the Great Depression.

Shiller: Recession May Hit Soon as Economy Caught in ‘Liquidity Trap’ | Debt Settlement Consumer Protection.

Even before some of the nation’s biggest mortgage lenders were forced to suspend foreclosure proceedings because of faulty paperwork, it was becoming clear that the Obama administration’s year-old effort to pump life into the housing market was falling short.

The federal government just reported that 4.2 million homeowners are “seriously delinquent” on their mortgages and some 10.9 million borrowers are underwater, meaning their loans exceed the value of their homes.

To make matter worse, there is the threat of protracted litigation between banks and borrowers because lenders might not have followed the letter of law in processing foreclosure paperwork.

An even bigger source of worry is the $426 billion in so-called second liens — home equity loans, second mortgages and other loans “junior” to the primary mortgage — that sit on the balance sheets of Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup.

The nation’s four biggest banks report that less than 4.5 percent of these loans are delinquent, according to Weiss Ratings. But some mortgage finance analysts like Joshua Rosner of Graham Fisher & Co remain skeptical. “Are the second liens properly reserved for? The banks say they are but that’s debatable,” said Rosner.

NewsDaily: Special Report: A Marshall Plan for America’s housing woes.

Home loan production is expected to come in below $1 trillion for the 2011 calendar year, according to figures released this week by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). If the trade group’s projections pan out, it will be the industry’s lowest level of home lending volume in 14 years. MBA estimates that we’ll end 2010 with $1.4 trillion in mortgage originations.

MBA’s analysts say next year’s drop will be driven by a decline in refinance originations, but the industry will see an increase in purchase originations. They also warn that the economy will grow at a slow pace, with no significant job growth until late next year.

2011 Mortgage Origination To Be Lowest Since 1996.

Matt Yglesias wonders if people have to speculate in housing. What if someone wants to buy a house but doesn’t want to gamble that house prices will increase ? Is there anything to be done ?

via Can I Buy a House without Speculating ? | Angry Bear.

NEW YORK — What will it take for the U.S. housing market to shake off the gloom?

Even before some of the nation’s biggest mortgage lenders were forced to suspend foreclosure proceedings because of faulty paperwork, it was becoming clear that the Obama administration’s year-old effort to pump life into the housing market was falling short.

The federal government just reported that 4.2 million homeowners are “seriously delinquent” on their mortgages and some 10.9 million borrowers are underwater, meaning their loans exceed the value of their homes.

To make matters worse, there is the threat of protracted litigation between banks and borrowers because lenders might not have followed the letter of law in processing foreclosure paperwork.

An even bigger source of worry is the $426 billion in so-called second liens — home equity loans, second mortgages and other loans “junior” to the primary mortgage — that sit on the balance sheets of Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup.
The nation’s four biggest banks report that less than 4.5 percent of these loans are delinquent, according to Weiss Ratings. But some mortgage finance analysts like Joshua Rosner of Graham Fisher & Co remain skeptical. “Are the second liens properly reserved for? The banks say they are — but that’s debatable,” said Rosner.

Experts share solutions to solving the foreclosure mess | Chase Home Finance Sucks.

Yesterday morning, Case Shiller released their monthly report of home prices for metro areas nationwide. The Dallas Fort Worth area showed a 1.7% decline in single family home prices in August of 2010 compared to August of 2009.

This latest data would seem to contradict reports that show the median home price in DFW has risen by 3%. The Case Shiller report does not calculate median prices, their index is calculated based on the actual sales prices of homes over a specific length of time. Median prices in the DFW area have shown a rise because of the recent strength of the higher-end housing in DFW, which has started to sell at a faster pace because long-term price reductions have brought many buyers down from the fence.

Here’s a summary of some other data released in the report:

* DFW single family home prices dropped 1.7% in August of 2010 compared to August of 2009.
* DFW single family home prices dropped 0.4% in July of 2010 compared to July of 2009.
* National home prices rose 1.7% in August of 2010 compared to August of 2009.
* Home prices rose the highest in cities that showed some of the most substantial declines over the last several years, including San Francisco, which saw a 7.8% increase and San Diego, which saw a 6.9% increase.
* Las Vegas, NV showed a 4.5% price decline despite the fact that they were also one of the cities that have had substantial price declines over the last several years.
* Tampa, FL also showed a 4.1% decrease in home prices.
* The Case Shiller index only calculates prices of single family homes. Prices of condos and townhomes are not part of the index.

Latest Case Shiller Report Shows Dallas Home Prices Down 1.7% in August 2010 « DFW Real Estate News.

WASHINGTON — Home prices are falling further, suggesting a bottom hasn’t been reached in many metro areas. Millions of foreclosures are expected to pour onto the market in the coming years. That’s likely to force prices down and hurt even cities that had begun to rebound. Investigations into banks’ foreclosure paperwork could further deter buyers and weigh down prices. The past few months have been the worst time in a decade for the housing market. Few people have bought homes, and among the small pool of buyers, many have purchased foreclosures and other distressed properties. The impact was apparent Tuesday when Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller released its latest index for home prices in 20 major U.S metro areas. The average price for all markets fell 0.2 percent in August and 15 cities posted declines. But the foreclosure problem is far from over.

Foreclosures Pushing Home Prices Down Even Further.

Purchase mortgage applications remain buried near record lows, a condition that has persisted for 5 months. That means that housing sales data over the next two months will continue to be terrible. And in spite of what you heard from the media, the data reported this week was all negative. Prices were down 1% in October and are down 5.7% since June, and demand is worse than ever.

New data reported this week from the Realtors, home builders, Case Shiller, and the Commerce Department’s survey of new home sales all showed upticks. Three of them were on a seasonally adjusted basis. That is absolutely meaningless because conditions were already near record lows for this time of year from the anti-seasonal collapse in activity over the past several months. It’s hard to go lower when you’re already at historic, rock bottom levels, but lo and behold, when the seasonal hocus pocus is removed, the numbers actually were worse—worse month to month, and much, much worse versus last year at this time.

The Worst Housing Indicator in the World – Professional Edition | The Wall Street Examiner.

If the housing sector is the canary in the U.S. economic coal mine, better grab your gas mask.

Home prices are taking an alarming dive, according to Clear Capital.

via House of Cards: Why Falling Home Prices Augur a Double-Dip | BNET.

Data through August 2010, released by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show a deceleration in the annual growth rates in 17 of the 20 MSAs and the 10- and 20-City Composites in August compared to what was reported for July 2010. The 10-City Composite was up 2.6% and the 20-City Composite was up 1.7% from their levels in August 2009. Home prices decreased in 15 of the 20 MSAs and both Composites in August from their July levels.

Housing Market Crushed: Case-Shiller – 24/7 Wall St..

In another setback for the U.S. housing sector, home prices in a widely cited 20-city index rose a less-than-expected 1.7% in August on a year-over-year basis, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price survey. The weaker growth came as the federal homebuyer tax credit program ended.

On a month-over-month basis, home prices in the 20-city index fell 0.2% in August from July.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected home prices to fall 0.2% in August from July, and increase 2.2% on a year-over-year basis, after rising 0.6% in July from June, and increasing 3.2% in July, on a year-over-year basis.

Case-Shiller August Home Price Data Disappoints – DailyFinance.

The S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20 home price index, a broad gauge of U.S. home prices, posted a 1.7% increase from 2009, but the gains decelerated sharply in the waning days of government tax credits and 12 of 20 cities posted year-over-year declines.

On a monthly basis, 15 cities notched declines from July, compared to just eight month-on-month drops in the July report. Seasonal variations can distort month-on-month comparisons. Based on a seasonal adjustment calculated by S&P, no city posted a monthly home-price increase in August.

“Given the continued influx of distressed properties – which make up about one third of sales – it is hard to make a case for significant price appreciation,” said Dan Greenhaus at Miller Tabak + Co. “Furthermore, given the ongoing supply/demand imbalance, we remain of the belief that further declines in prices simply have to be realized in order to help clear the market in an efficient manner.”

A Look at Case-Shiller, by Metro Area (October Update) – Real Time Economics – WSJ.

WASHINGTON (AP, BY ALAN ZIBEL) — Home prices are weakening around the country, even in metro areas that were showing strength earlier in the year.

The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index released Tuesday fell 0.2 percent in August from July. Fifteen of the cities showed monthly price declines. Prices are expected to drop further in the coming months.

The biggest drop came in Phoenix. Prices there fell 1.3 percent from a month earlier. And prices in three California cities that had been rebounding — San Francisco, San Diego and Los Angeles — fell by less than 1 percent in August from July.

Detroit, Chicago, Washington, New York and Las Vegas were the only cities to show monthly price increases. The 20-city index has risen 6.7 percent from its April 2009 bottom. But it remains nearly 28 percent below its July 2006 peak.

Case-Shiller Index: Home Prices Fall In August As Market Shows Signs Of Trouble.

The “ownership society” just ain’t what it used to be.

Investors watched their retirement savings brutalized not once but twice during the “lost decade” of 2000-2009. Now, Americans are watching the value of their home, which seemed last spring to be rallying, again in decline.

via Case Shiller Index shows Portland-area home prices dipping in August | OregonLive.com.

A 1.7% rise in the 20-city composite (year-over-year) is worse than expectations.

Home prices were down sequentially in 15 of the 20 markets. That’s the real story.

Says S&P’s David Blitzer: “There’s no way to sugar-coat this report.”

And bear in mind, this is all before the foreclosure-gate stuff hit.

via Case-Shiller Weak: Home Prices Down In 15 Of 20 Markets.

This morning the S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index for August was published. It showed the beginnings of declines in home prices that were reported by Clear Capital and CoreLogic over the past week. The Case Shiller Home Price Index is a three month moving average that lags two months, so this iteration is actually measuring an average of June, July, and August. As a result, this effect of the first time home buyer tax credit is still present in this survey.

via Case Shiller Home Prices Broadly Declined in August | Mortgage Rates & Trends: Mortgage Blog.

Today’s Case Shiller data confirmed recent reports of weakness in housing. Although the Case Shiller report lags by one month the data showed signs of weakness that have also been apparent in the NAR’s data as well as Clear Capital’s housing index. The Case Shiller data showed a 1.7% year over year improvement in prices in August, but showed a -0.1% decline on a month on month basis. Although this doesn’t sound even remotely alarming it is in-line with the Clear Capital data which is a month in advance and showed sharp deterioration in September. The Case Shiller data is likely to reflect steeper declines next month.

CASE SHILLER DATA CONFIRMS HOUSING WEAKNESS | PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM.

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stock futures slid further Tuesday after an index of home prices fell in August, ending a long string of monthly increases.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 47 points to 11068, while Standard & Poor’s 500-share futures shed 6 points to 1177 and Nasdaq 100 futures lost 8 points to 2100. Prior to the data, Dow futures had been down 37 points, while S&P 500 futures lost 5 and Nasdaq futures were off 7. Changes in stock futures do not always accurately predict stock moves after the opening bell.

U.S. home prices fell in August from a month earlier, ending their climb since April, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price indexes. The index of 10 major metropolitan areas fell 0.1% in August compared with July, while the 20-city index declined 0.2%. Adjusted for seasonal factors, the 10-area index fell 0.2%, while the 20-area declined 0.3%.

US Stock Futures Slide Further After Case-Shiller Data – MarketWatch.

The much anticipated Case-Shiller Home Price Index was released today and reported that home prices fell slightly (0.2%) in August from July. Declines were seen in 15 of 20 cities surveyed, but prices were still up on a year over year basis. The index is now off 29% from its all time high and should continue to fall in the months to come. It must be kept in mind that this index uses a 3 month weighted average so the months included are June, July, and August. Most of the deterioration in home prices was seen in late July-August period. Personally, I am surprised home prices did not fall much more (I was expecting around 1%).

Case-Shiller Home Price Index Dips In August | Black Swan Insights.

The U.S. housing market is dying. You will only hear hints of this on the mainstream news and from the politicians in Washington D.C., but as statistic after statistic continues to roll in, the reality of what is happening is becoming very difficult to deny.

via 15 Signs The U.S. Housing Market Is Headed For Complete And Total Collapse.

Rumors of some major homeowner bailout have percolated for awhile, but the government denies anything is afoot.

However we think something will definitely happen after the election.

via Obama Now Has No Choice Except To Announce A Major Homeowner Bailout After The Election.

Dallas-area home prices lagged again in the latest housing market measure.

Home prices in Dallas dipped 1.7 percent in August from a year ago in the closely watched Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price Index.

via Dallas-area home prices down nearly 2 percent in latest Case-Shiller report | News for Dallas, Texas | Dallas Morning News | Latest News.

This data along with the info from Clear Capital further confirms the double dip in housing despite Fed money printing. Will another $1 trillion do anything? Of course not. Regarding Corelogic’s Index, it uses a three month weighted average which means it reflects data from June, July, and August. Because it is released before Case-Shiller I like to follow it to get a heads up on what to expect. Based on this we can probably expect a decline in Case-Shiller of around 1%.

via August Home Prices Declined 1.5 Percent Year Over Year–CoreLogic | Black Swan Insights.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank and other regulators are “intensively” examining financial firms’ home-foreclosure practices and expect preliminary findings next month.

“We have been concerned about reported irregularities in foreclosure practices at a number of large financial institutions,” Bernanke said today at a housing conference in Arlington, Virginia. “We are looking intensively at the firms’ policies, procedures, and internal controls related to foreclosures and seeking to determine whether systematic weaknesses are leading to improper foreclosures.”

Bernanke Says Regulators `Intensively’ Reviewing Foreclosures – Bloomberg.

For the third month in a row, housing prices and sales across metro Atlanta declined in September from the same month a year ago, according to data released Monday by the National Association of Realtors.

via Metro home prices, sales continue to fall  | ajc.com.

Home sales picked up in September, but the long-term picture for housing is growing grimmer, say analysts and economists who are pushing back forecasts for a housing recovery.

Earlier this year, the housing market appeared poised for a turnaround, three years after it peaked. Federal tax credits for buyers spurred a flurry of activity, and the economy was adding jobs. That led some economists to forecast housing would hit bottom and begin to recover this year.

Now, some economists don’t see a recovery until late next year or early 2012. “In most markets, the tide seems to be going back out,” said Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow.com, a real-estate site. “The momentum is easing.”

Adding to the mounting worries is the foreclosure crisis. Some banks suspended sales of foreclosed homes late last month to address questions about the integrity of the foreclosure process. If a substantial part of the market freezes for some weeks, that could further crimp sales.

Home Sales Rise, but So Do Bearish Views – WSJ.com.

As I demonstrated in prior posts, given their strong correlation, the home price indices provided daily by Radar Logic, averaged monthly, can effectively be used as a preview of the monthly S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices.

The current Radar Logic 25 MSA Composite data reported on residential real estate transactions (condos, multi and single family homes) that settled as late as August 19 and averaged for the month indicates that in the wake of the expiration of the government’s final housing tax gimmick prices have continued to decline sliding 0.67% since July and declining a notable 2.17% below the level seen in August 2009.

The latest daily RPX data is indicating that the price decline picked up steam throughout August and is currently down roughly 2.68% on a year-over-year basis.

Paper Economy – A US Real Estate Bubble Blog: More Pain, Less Gain: S&P/Case-Shiller Preview for August 2010.

If history echoes, as it tends to do, then the last mini-bubble, bust and aftermath offers us an instructional model of how housing bubbles play out.

Why is this so? For two reasons: human psychology reliably swings between euphoria and caution in the marketplace, and the business cycle of rising debt and over-expansion followed by contraction of credit and retrenching is a feature of free markets.

One standard way of assessing the underlying valuation of housing is to compare it with income. When homes are soaring in value, they rise above the historical average of 4 times median household income. When houses fall in value, they dip to 3.5 times median household income.

Housing Prediction: Bottom in 2014, Then a Decade of Stagnation | housingstorm.com.

National negative equity rates declined for the second consecutive quarter. According to CoreLogic, 11 million, or 23 percent, of all residential properties with mortgages were in negative equity at the end of the second quarter of 2010, down from 11.2 million and 24 percent from the first quarter of 2010. Foreclosures, rather than meaningful price appreciation, were the primary driver in the change in negative equity. An additional 2.4 million borrowers had less than five percent equity. Together, negative equity and near-negative equity mortgages accounted for nearly 28 percent of all residential properties with a mortgage nationwide.

Negative equity, often referred to as “underwater” or “upside down,” means that borrowers owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. Negative equity can occur because of a decline in value, an increase in mortgage debt or a combination of both.

CoreLogic: 11 Million Underwater Homes | housingstorm.com.

Those who believe that the danger of a double-dip recession has passed should take pause today to register an American housing market plunging with renewed vigor.

via Houses and Holes: American housing resumes its crash.

There has been much written as to the future of residential real estate prices. The consensus appears to be for very slight appreciation for years. This consensus is echoed in the MacroMarkets September 2010 Home Price Expectations Survey Press Release.

via What’s Ahead For The Housing Market – A Look At The Charts | EconomicGreenfield.

MacroMarkets: The recovery Optimists project appreciation of more than 14% through 2014; the Pessimists – less than 3% over the same period.

Home PricesMacroMarkets LLC announced the results of the October 2010 MacroMarkets Home Price Expectations Survey, compiled from 109 responses of a diverse group of economists, real estate experts, investment and market strategists. The survey is conducted monthly, and is based upon the projected path of the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index over the coming five years.

Uncertainty Persists in U.S. Home Price Outlook.

Even after an extension of unemployment benefits to 99 weeks, many of those about to go off the program are in a quandary. Scott Pelley talks to some of them in Silicon Valley.

via Unemployment Benefits: The 99ers – 60 Minutes – CBS News.

Just when you thought the real estate market in Louisiana couldn’t get any worse, the BP oil spill occurred. Now, some experts estimate that the property values among Gulf-shore properties will experience a 10 percent decrease over the next three years. How will your Louisiana home’s value fare in the midst of all these disasters?

via When Will My Home Value Return? Louisiana, New Orleans Baton Rouge Shreveport Lafayette… Realestate Rebound Rising Recovery?.

After suspending foreclosures in order to review cases that may be flawed by procedural errors or fraud, major mortgage companies have injected new uncertainty into the already-weak housing market. While few of the homeowners under scrutiny are likely to avoid foreclosure, the freeze adds additional confusion and delays recovery of the troubled housing sector, according to Wharton faculty and real estate analysts.

via The Walls Keep Tumbling Down.

Oct. 22 – “Home prices will fall another 10 percent to 15 percent in the next year, reflecting a drop in home sales after the expiration of a homebuyer tax credit,” said Christopher Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York.

“The momentum for the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index of property values in 20 U.S. cities is downward,” Low said on Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keene and Ken Prewitt. “We’re looking for prices to fall 10-15 percent.

The S&P/Case-Shiller measure was buoyed by a rebound in sales earlier this year resulting from the government’s incentive worth as much as $8,000,” Low said. “While the plunge in home sales following the expiration of the credit may have stopped, purchases are bouncing along the bottom and prices won’t rise until demand picks up enough to clear the inventory of unsold homes,” he said.

“Another drop in prices may surprise home sellers because they’ve seen some months of stabilization,” Low said. The existing and new homes sales reports for September are scheduled to be released next week, as is the S&P/Case-Shiller index for August.

Christopher Low: Home prices to fall up to 15%.

Your worst housing fears are confirmed in the quarterly market report from Clear Capital.

National home prices are down 0.2%.

Western markets fell the most — 0.8% — which is especially rough because places like California and Nevada had already collapsed up to 50% from the high.

via Another Report Confirms That The Housing Double Dip Is Here.

Although housing woes have reached around the country, California appears to be poised to rank among the many worse. One of the main reasons for this is the reality that in the last a number of months California has skilled the largest rate of deflating home costs.

In fact, home prices in California have fallen at levels that have already been unprecedented. Miami, Florida has also confirmed to be a difficult market at the moment.

Here, the weak mortgage loan market and record higher rates of foreclosures have let to decreasing home values as properly. In reality, Miami has been among the many worst home markets in the nation for too many years running.

Looking Into The Future At The Housing Market.

TRUCKEE, Calif. – Oct. 22, 2010 – Clear Capital (www.clearcapital.com), is issuing this special alert on a dramatic change observed in U.S. home prices.

“Clear Capital’s latest data shows even more pronounced price declines than our most recent HDI market report released two weeks ago,” said Dr. Alex Villacorta, senior statistician, Clear Capital. “At the national level, home prices are clearly experiencing a dramatic drop from the tax credit-induced highs, effectively wiping out all of the gains obtained during the flurry of activity just preceding the tax credit expiration.”

Newsroom at Clear Capital : Press Release.

Clear Capital said a 6%, two-month decline in home prices represents a magnitude and speed not seen since March 2009.

“Clear Capital’s latest data through Oct. 22 shows even more pronounced price declines than our most recent (Home Data Index) market report released two weeks ago,” said Alex Villacorta, senior statistician with data analytics firm. “At the national level, home prices are clearly experiencing a dramatic drop from the tax credit-induced highs, effectively wiping out all of the gains obtained during the flurry of activity just preceding the tax credit expiration.”

Prices are now at the same level as in mid-April, two weeks prior to the expiration of the federal homebuyer tax credit. The drop, in advance of typical winter housing market slowdowns, paints an ominous picture that will likely show up in other housing indices in the coming months.

If previous correlations between the Clear Capital and S&P/Case-Shiller indices continue as expected, the next two months will show a similar downward trend in S&P/Case-Shiller numbers.

Clear Capital: Home price drop sudden and dramatic « HousingWire.

IRVING — Real estate is a cyclical industry, and the next cycle is an “era of less,” a research analyst said Thursday.

“Real estate did take a dive” in the recession, Charles DiRocco, PricewaterhouseCoopers’ director of real estate research, told a North Texas Urban Land Institute chapter meeting. DiRocco is on a 32-city speaking tour presenting the latest Emerging Trends in Real Estate, a highly regarded study sponsored by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the institute.

via Next real estate cycle ‘era of less’ | Business | Dallas Business, Texas Business, Fort ….

Behold this chart, assembled by the Washington Post, which depicts the heaviest concentration of American foreclosure activity.

The Las Vegas area is a gleaming red pockmark hanging from the southern tip of Nevada.

More frightening, the entire state of Florida has been transformed into a swollen, infected, blood orange appendage protruding into the ocean. Is it any wonder that some of the most maddening stories of the foreclosure crisis have emerged from the Sunshine State?

The chart accompanies this Post piece on the political fallout of foreclosure foibles.

Pity Florida’s Monstrous Real Estate Market | The New York Observer.

It’s no question that the housing bubble has created a huge effect on the housing economy today. But what would have happened to home prices if that bubble never happened? Robert Shiller of the S&P Case-Shiller index offers some insight.

via Where would we be if we hadn’t had a housing bubble? | Marketplace From American Public Media.

Halloween is still 10 days off, but the housing market has been rocked by horror stories for weeks: tales of mortgage servicers who rubber-stamped documents approving foreclosure without reading them, robo-signers who handled 10,000 cases a month, affidavits that were signed and backdated with no notary present, homeowners who had been evicted from their homes and are now breaking back in, electronic mortgage registration systems that didn’t keep track of who owned the mortgage notes, law firms that acted as foreclosure mills, and judges who have threatened to charge loan servicers with fraud after presenting improper documents. It all culminated in Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, and Ally Financial suspending foreclosures while they determined whether they should be take place at all.

The housing market is in a real mess, and it’s no wonder that attorneys general across the country are investigating the mortgage servicing business. Some numbers help tell the story: One out of every 371 homes received a foreclosure notice last month. The real estate data company Realty Trac reports that 100,000 foreclosures took place nationwide in all of 2005, but that number was topped in just a single month this year. Realty Trac estimates that lenders will foreclose on a record 1.2 million homes in 2010. And one out of every seven of Bank of America’s 14 million mortgage borrowers is having trouble making payments or has already stopped making them.

Could Foreclosure Fiasco Harm the Recovery? You Can Bet the House on It..

Hopes are sinking and uncertainty is on the rise that a housing recovery will begin next year, according to a monthly survey of housing economists.

Exactly half of the 109 economists surveyed by MacroMarkets during the first two weeks of October expect to see the onset of recovery in 2011; the balance don’t expect don’t expect a rebound to take hold until sometime in 2012 or later.

via Fewer Economists See Housing Recovery in 2011 – UPI.com.

According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Price Index, prices have now fallen for four consecutive months after a five month run-up in home prices starting last spring.

The prices were down by 0.4% in January and December of 2009 has prices that have fallen 0.7% form a year earlier.

David Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at Standard’s & Poor, said the “The rebound in housing prices seen last fall is fading. Fewer cities experienced month-to-month gains in January.”

via Home Prices Have Fallen For 4 Consecutive Months.

THIS time last year, The Economist’s survey of global house prices was a sea of negative numbers. That was then. Of the 20 markets tracked in our latest survey, only four still posted year-on-year declines and only Ireland’s property catastrophe has worsened. (America’s FHFA index, which excludes houses that are financed with large mortgages, was also down, but the country’s Case-Shiller national and ten-city indices rose modestly.)

via Global house prices: Floor to ceiling | The Economist.

Last week, Bank of America announced that it was halting foreclosures in all fifty-states while it reviewed its foreclosure process for defects. Now several lawmakers on Capitol Hill are calling for other banks to initiate nationwide foreclosure freezes—a move which the Obama administration is currently opposing.

So what’s going on here? Why is the foreclosure machinery of our nation’s largest banks suddenly grinding to a halt? What does this mean for the financial sector and the economy?

Let’s start with the most basic questions first. Then I’ll explain some of the possible implications for homeowners, banks, and the economy.

How did this thing get started?

Ever since the housing bubble burst, there have been signs that there are serious problems with foreclosure practices. In some cases, the financial institution claiming it owns the mortgage has not been able to produce the underlying loan documents. In 2007, a federal judge held that Deutsche Bank lacked standing to foreclose in 14 cases because it could not produce the documents proving that it had been assigned the rights in the mortgages when they were securitized.

This decision was followed by similar rulings in other states stopping foreclosure proceedings. Typically the judges would find that the banks that were servicing mortgages pooled into bonds weren’t able to prove they owned the mortgages.

A Primer On The Foreclosure Crisis – CNBC.

There’s trouble, my friends, and it is does indeed involve pool(s), but not in the pool hall. The real monster is hidden in those pools of subprime debt that have not gone away. When I first began writing and speaking about the coming subprime disaster, it was in late 2007 and early 2008. The subject was being dismissed in most polite circles. “The subprime problem,” testified Ben Bernanke, “will be contained.”

via Where is the Housing Recovery? | housingstorm.com.

Earlier this year, a homeowner in Pennsylvania had her home padlocked, utilities cut, and her pet taken away because a major Wall Street bank foreclosed on her home by mistake. A couple in Florida had their belongings wrongfully removed and locks on their house changed even though they were not in default on their mortgage. A homeowner in Kentucky had his home damaged and utility lines cut when the lender foreclosed on the wrong home.

This is why we need a foreclosure moratorium, so that Wall Street banks can stop conducting illegal foreclosures, hire and train the proper staff, and start following the law. We also call upon state banking regulators to ensure compliance with California’s specific laws and regulations.

The foreclosure crisis is especially acute in California, which was devastated by Wall Street’s excesses during the subprime boom years. But unlike Pennsylvania, Florida and Kentucky – which are among 23 states with a judicial foreclosure process – California has little to no judicial oversight over foreclosure proceedings. Illegal and wrongful foreclosures that are stopped by the judicial system in other states can slip through in California.

State must step up policing of mortgage industry – The Daily Breeze.

Recent revelations about mortgage lenders filing possibly faulty court papers to foreclose on homes has sparked a public outcry and called into question tens of thousands of foreclosures. Here’s a look at the issue and its impact.

Q: How did this come to light?

A: Lawyers for homeowners fighting foreclosures took depositions from officials who prepare legal documents to get court approval to foreclose. The document signers — who have now been dubbed robo-signers — said they signed thousands of affidavits without reviewing the supporting papers or having the affidavits signed in the presence of a notary. Both are supposed to be done before foreclosure papers are submitted to courts in about 23 states that require judicial approval for all or most foreclosures. Some lawyers allege there were instances of fraud, too, including backdated documents and forged signatures.

Foreclosure procedures undergo extensive review – USATODAY.com.

Since early last month, the sale has been postponed three times as the mortgage finance giant Fannie Mae, which seized the home from a delinquent borrower, has faced concerns about whether the foreclosure was properly carried out.

And as this deal and others like it languish, the effects are rippling across this community on Florida’s west coast. Mamuyac has to continue paying rent for an apartment six miles down the road. Mamuyac’s real estate agent hasn’t been able to pocket his commission, nor has the seller’s agent. Another home inspector loses out on work.

via Florida community feels ripple effects as paperwork issues stall foreclosures.

Attorneys general from all 50 states launched a joint investigation last week into allegations that mortgage-servicing companies submitted fraudulent documents and broke laws in foreclosure proceedings. Some lawmakers are calling for a national moratorium on foreclosures. In response, major mortgage servicers—including Ally Bank, Chase, Bank of America and PNC Financial Services—have announced a freeze on all foreclosures until internal investigations are completed.

via Barbara Novick: Why a Foreclosure Moratorium Is a Bad Idea – WSJ.com.

I read that Angelo R.Mozilo of Countrywide Financial fame is paying a $67.5 million fine of which Countrywide is paying $20 million. It reminds me of the old story that lawyers are wont to tell. A petty thief is charged with stealing a watch. He vehemently denies it. He is convicted and sentenced to probation. As he is walking out of court, he turns to his lawyer and says: “Does this mean that I can keep the watch?” I expect that Mr. Mozilo turned to his lawyer and asked: “Does this mean that I can keep the remaining $100 million?”

Judge H. Lee Sarokin: Who Are the Culprits in the Foreclosure Crisis: The Lenders, The Borrowers or the Congress?.

Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co., set to report earnings this week, face investors groping for answers after evidence of flawed foreclosure documents triggered a selloff of U.S. bank stocks.

The banks plus JPMorgan Chase & Co. saw $49.3 billion in market value shaved off in the three days ended Oct. 15 amid concern that rising costs of faulty foreclosures will eat into profits. JPMorgan set aside $2.3 billion of reserves to cover mortgage repurchases or litigation expenses, including some for “mortgage-related matters,” the lender said Oct. 13.

U.S. Bank Earnings Face Mortgage Scrutiny as $49 Billion in Value Vanishes – Bloomberg.

Although major banks have announced a temporary freeze on some residential foreclosures, the White House is standing firmly against any program to guarantee working people a roof over their heads even as unemployment shows no sign of abatement.
More than 30,000 people lined up at the downtown convention center in Los Angeles September 30-October 4 in hopes of preventing foreclosure on their houses. Some camped overnight for a chance to meet with counselors and bank representatives in an attempt to modify their mortgages.

“I’ve talked to a lot of people who have the same story as me,” said Huy Nguyen as he waited to register for the event. “I applied three times for a loan modification in the last year and was rejected three times. They won’t give a reason.” Twenty percent of all foreclosures in August were in California, a state with 12.4 percent unemployment.

Nationwide, 95,000 people lost their houses to foreclosure in August, a 25 percent jump from a year ago and the highest monthly repossession rate on record, reports RealtyTrac.

The Militant – October 25, 2010 — Residential foreclosures mount as economy sinks.

Millions of homes have been seized by banks during the economic crisis through a mass production system of foreclosures that was set up to prioritize one thing over everything else: speed.

With 2 million homes in foreclosure and another 2.3 million seriously delinquent on their mortgages – the biggest logjam of distressed properties the market has ever seen – companies involved in the foreclosure process were paid to move cases quickly through the pipeline.

Law firms competed with one another to file the largest number of foreclosures on behalf of lenders – and were rewarded for their work with bonuses. These and other companies that handled the preparation of documents were paid for volume, so they processed as many as they could en masse, leaving little time to read the paperwork and catch errors.

And the big mortgage companies overseeing it all – including government-owned Fannie Mae – were so eager to get bad loans off their books that they imposed a penalty on contractors if they moved too slowly.

via For foreclosure processors hired by mortgage lenders, speed equaled money.

Erroneous documents. A freeze on foreclosures. Charges of fraud.

A flurry of developments have sketched an alarming scenario: that major U.S. banks rammed through foreclosure after foreclosure without giving many borrowers a fair shot at keeping their homes.

Questions have arisen about the scope of the problem, the effect on the nation’s foreclosure epidemic and the likelihood that some people could regain their foreclosed homes.

Here’s what you need to know about the unfolding foreclosure mess:

Q: What’s the problem I’m hearing about foreclosures?

A: Three of the nation’s largest banks — JPMorgan Chase & Co., Ally Financial’s GMAC Mortgage unit and PNC Financial — have stopped foreclosures in some states, and Bank of America Corp. has done so in all 50 states. They’re checking to see whether their employees made errors in loan documents needed to complete foreclosures.

Q: What kinds of errors?

A: Evidence has surfaced of mistakes in the documents that mortgage companies present to a judge to foreclose on a home. Lenders failed, for instance, to show they had a legal right to foreclose on borrowers’ homes. And some employees have acknowledged they signed foreclosure documents without reading them. Many documents also appear to have been signed without a notary public witnessing that signature. That’s a violation of law.

Q: How did this happen?

A: Mortgage companies have been overwhelmed by paperwork involving millions of foreclosures and defaults. Consumer advocates say the companies took shortcuts rather than hiring more staff.

Q: Why did some lenders halt foreclosures in only 23 states?

A: Those states require foreclosures to be approved by judges. Statements before a judge are made under oath. Any falsehoods are subject to perjury charges. If false documents in such cases aren’t corrected, it’s possible these foreclosure cases could be dismissed.

Q: What about the 27 other states?

A: Except for Bank of America, major lenders are still pursuing foreclosures in those states, including California — for now, anyway. But attorneys general in all 50 states are reviewing whether mortgage companies violated laws. Many of those states require mortgage lenders to complete detailed paperwork before homeowners can be evicted. It’s harder for homeowners to challenge foreclosures in these states. They can by filing their own lawsuits. But it’s an uphill battle. Q: What do banks mean when they say they’re halting foreclosures?

A: It all depends on the bank. Most, like GMAC, are still initiating foreclosures but are no longer evicting people or selling foreclosed homes in states that require judges’ approval. Others, like Bank of America, have stopped seizing foreclosed homes but continue to sell homes that were foreclosed already on and are still processing new foreclosures.

Q: What if I’m a homeowner in the middle of foreclosure? Could I get my home back?

A: You can hire a lawyer or approach a housing counselor who will examine your mortgage and foreclosure paperwork, look for errors and use them to pressure lenders to at least forgive a portion of the homeowners’ loans. But most experts say people who have lost homes to foreclosure don’t have much hope in the long run, especially if banks can show judges that they have corrected any errors. Q: What if I bought a foreclosed property? Could somebody take it back?

A: Not in most cases. Previous owners can sue the lender that sold the property. That won’t be easy. And title insurance protects homebuyers from any claim on the property that surfaces after the deal has closed.

Key facts about the foreclosure mess | Real Estate | PE.com | Southern California News | News for Inland Southern California.

RISMEDIA, October 15, 2010—(MCT)—Ken and Linda Bolsch put their five-bedroom, five-year-old Mahwah, N.J., colonial on the market in January, sure that buyers would appreciate its low taxes, wooded lot, and impeccable decor and landscaping. But after nine months—and a price cut from 5,000 to 9,000—the house is still on the market, with the couple looking at a substantial loss at that price. “We fell in love with the house from the moment we saw it, and we don’t know why other people aren’t doing the same,” Ken Bolsch said. “We’re so confused and confounded about the whole thing.”

These are tough days for sellers. Sales have plunged at least 20% from last year’s numbers, following the expiration of a federal tax credit for home buyers, and the real estate market is headed into a traditionally slow season. Small wonder that sellers feel discouraged and disappointed.

Bob Sandusky, the Bolsches’ agent, sums up sellers’ feelings in one word: “frustration.”

“They’re angry. They’re bitter. They’re in a bad place; they’re in a sad place,” said Attilio Adamo, a real estate agent in Harrington Park, NJ.

The usual prescription for a house that won’t sell is simple: Cut the price. “If the seller allows you to price it right, it goes,” said Roslyn Breitstein, an agent in Harrington Park, NJ.

New Hope Real Estate Blog » Blog Archive » Home Sellers Must Look Beyond Price Cuts in Today’s Market.

Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and Ally Bank (formerly GMAC) have halted home foreclosures in 23 states after it came to light that bank employees were rubber-stamping thousands of court documents without checking them for accuracy or getting them notarized as required by law in foreclosure proceedings, the Financial Times reported.

The disruption in foreclosures is expected to be temporary, delaying foreclosures but not giving homeowners facing disclosure any permanent relief.

Still, the problem shows the disarray in the U.S. home market as a record one million Americans are expected to lose their homes this year.

9 Million Americans Predicted to be Homeless by 2012.

What would George Washington think if he could see the latest travails in America’s mortgage fiasco? Washington, as I recall from my grade-school history reading, was a trained property surveyor, which would have made him familiar with a process that is critical in determining ownership of a home.

If Washington were to visit the county office where property records are maintained, he might feel right at home. Often, documents have the same legal format as in the 18th century, and they are maintained in pretty much the same manner.

On the other hand, if Washington were to visit a 21st-century financial firm that deals in mortgage securities, he would be thoroughly bewildered. There he would find computers maintaining records in electronic format that are far more complex than anything that existed in his day. No longer is a mortgage loan owned by a local bank engaged in a long-term relationship with the borrower. Instead, the loan has been sold, packaged, subdivided and allocated according to complex formulas to a variety of owners around the world. In the process, the rights to receive the borrower’s payments, along with the right to seize the property if the borrower defaults, have been transferred many times.

What has emerged in recent weeks as “the foreclosure scandal” represents the collision of this 21st-century computerized, global financial system with an 18th-century legal process for obtaining ownership rights to buildings and land. Indeed, the United States has one of the most backward land-title systems in the industrial world.

If we wanted, we could apply modern technology to the land-title process. We could base property boundaries on satellite photography rather than on surveyor’s sketches. We could use precise coordinates for latitude and longitude instead of references to topographical features. We could maintain records in digital format, where they could be accessed on the Internet.

I am not saying that we can make property records easy and foolproof. I know someone who lives in a condominium where two owners share the same storage locker. That creates a property right that strikes me as rather unclear. What if a new owner of the second condo claims that the first condo owner is taking up too much space, or the wrong space, in the locker? No amount of computerization can remove all ambiguity.

KLING: Foreclose on our antiquated title system – Washington Times.

Are you out of your mind to even consider buying a foreclosed property right now?

Todd Phelps and Paul Whitehead didn’t think they were last month when they were the winning bidders in a foreclosure auction on the steps of the main Riverside, Calif., county courthouse. They thought they had won the lottery.

For years, they had been living in a rent-controlled apartment in Santa Monica and waiting out the housing bubble in hopes of buying a weekend getaway in the Palm Springs area. And on Sept. 10, they thought they had finally done it, getting a house for $137,000.

Several days later, however, they realized that what they had really bought was a second mortgage from Wachovia on a house that still had an enormous, unpaid primary loan. In other words, they did not own the home free and clear, and the auction company wouldn’t give back their $137,000 check.

Your Money – Avoid the Foreclosure Market Until the Dust Settles – NYTimes.com.

The press has had a field day with foreclosure difficulties and robosigners in the last couple of weeks. In reality, such problems pale in comparison with the difficulties already existing in the industry.

For the past year or more, mortgage servicers have struggled with selling properties taken back in foreclosures. Such disposition delays have cost the industry dearly, and will continue to do so. In response, some in the industry delayed foreclosures. Some banks allowed greater time for borrowers to affect short sales. Others took more time to modify loans, hoping to avoid foreclosure.

Robo-signer technicalities only a portion of mortgage industry’s problems « HousingWire.

JPMorgan Chase has suspended foreclosures in 23 states while the company looks at 115,000 mortgage foreclosure files to find potential errors in its documentation. Ally Financial and Bank of America are looking for errors in files for all 50 states and suspending foreclosures. Goldman Sachs’ Litton Loan Servicing, PNC Financial, and OneWest Bank began are checking their files, but Wells Fargo and Citigroup are holding their ground, stating that their affidavits are valid and sound.

via 5 Things You Should Know About the Foreclosure Moratorium – My Money (usnews.com).

Hope springs eternal, and denial rules downtrodden financial markets. However, locally it appears that housing market watchers are beginning to accept that house prices will not be going up soon.

via Accepting That Housing Prices Will Not Go Back Up | housingstorm.com.

Welcome to the first ever Insider Report for the Washington Metro area. This is your peek behind the scenes at what is really going on in the local real estate space — we’ll tell it like it is using on-the-ground insights backed up with cold hard stats from the industry’s most comprehensive database of broker- and owner-listed homes, as well as public records and our own brokerage activity. We hate sales mumbo jumbo as much as you do, so we’ll leave that part out.

Now, without further introduction, onto the numbers!

Step Up & Strap In to Ride the Real Estate Rollercoaster | Redfin Washington, DC & Baltimore Sweet Digs.

It would seem the $#!@ has really hit the fan lately with the sloppy documentation (or sometimes complete lack of documentation) banks have been keeping as they package, re-package, and transfer the ownership of various mortgages between each other.

I’m not going to go into the details of the mess that has finally come to the national media’s attention over the last few weeks since you can read excellent coverage on the subject from any number of other sources. As usual, I recommend Calculated Risk as a great starting point. However, there is one local angle on this story that has come up in the last few days that are worth mentioning on these pages.

Foreclosure Documentation Mess: What Does It Mean? • Seattle Bubble.

The first quarter of 2009 was the worst in decades for the United States. The three pillars to test the strength of its economy from the crisis showed worse than expected numbers: they lost 5 million jobs, the activity seems to have made nearly 5% annualized and the Case-Shiller index (which measures the value of dwellings) seems to slip at an annualized rate of 22%. By the same author: Bizzi & Partners. In this context, Obama’s administration tried to keep pace, launching a festival plans to revive the economy, fighting on three interrelated fronts (real estate, financial and real). Despite the criticism he is receiving the Government for its handling of the economy seems to have some “green shots” or “good news” that could start generating an air of hope to the struggling economy would improve its medium-term outlook . One example is the slight recovery in the property sector, driven by sales of new and used homes, which by the low prices have become “Buying opportunities.” Also it should be emphasized that the increase has been showing consumer confidence, which could impact the second and third quarter. Finally, requests for unemployment insurance fell more than expected, although this is affected by the holidays, so that the adjusted figure would be closer than expected (658 000 new orders) but at a slightly lower level ( 651 000 new orders). Hear other arguments on the topic with John Savignano. However, still there is evidence that pessimism is justified.

The Recovery Plan Still Not Working | Carolina Choice Realty.

WASHINGTON — Don’t take the latest snapshot of U.S. home prices too seriously.

The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city index released Tuesday ticked up in July from June. But the gain is merely temporary, analysts say. They see home values taking a dive in many major markets well into next year.

That’s because the peak home-buying season is now ending after a dismal summer. The hardest-hit markets, already battered by foreclosures, are bracing for a bigger wave of homes sold at foreclosure or through short sales. A short sale is when a lender lets a homeowner sell for less than the mortgage is worth.

Add high unemployment and reluctant buyers, and the outlook in many areas is bleak. Nationally, home values are projected to fall 2.2 percent in the second half of the year, according to analysts surveyed by MacroMarkets LLC. And Moody’s Analytics predicts the Case-Shiller index will drop 8 percent within a year.

45% of home sales likely ‘distressed’ in ’11- The New Haven Register – Serving New Haven, Connecticut.

OK, maybe a bit pungent, but there is no sense in sugar coating this one.

As I blogged earlier this week, there is a catch to the Obama Administration’s supposed $1 billion lifeline for jobless homeowners.

If you and your spouse pulled down than $110,150 before a layoff or a big hit in income, you won’t get a dime from the newly launched Emergency Homeowner Loan Program.

That excludes a lot of people – from a school teacher married to a cop who pulled in a little overtime to a sales guy who made $120,000 a year before he lost half his commissions.

Hardly extravagant incomes in Greater Boston, where the middle of the housing market ranges from $267,184 to $404,029, according to Case Shiller.

That’s bound to leave a lot of solidly middle class homeowners in need of a break on the outside looking in.

Sticking it to jobless homeowners? – Boston Real Estate – Boston.com.

The number of foreclosure filings rose 3 percent in September, according to foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac. The term “foreclosure filing” is a catch-all word for housing, comprising default notices, scheduled auctions, and bank repossessions.
September marked the 19th straight month that the number of filings topped 300,000, and the first month in which 100,000 repossessions were logged.
As usual, a small number of states dominated the national foreclosure figures, accounting for more than half of all repossessions.

California : 17% of all repossessions
Florida : 13% of all repossessions
Michigan : 7% of all repossessions
Arizona : 7% of all repossessions
Texas : 5% of all repossessions
Georgia : 5% of all repossessions

Thankfully for home sellers, mortgage servicers appear to be metering the pace at these newly bank-owned homes are made available to the public. RealtyTrac notes that, in doing so, servicers prevent “the further erosion of home prices”.

Bank Reposessions Top 100,000 In A Month For The First Time Ever | HomeTown Lenders Blog.

RealtyTrac reports that the third quarter of 2010 set a new historical record, marking the largest foreclosure activity ever – with foreclosures exceeding 100,000.

And though these foreclosure numbers are horrendous, we can expect a drop in foreclosures in the fourth quarter, resulting from the freeze instituted by banks across the country. Our guess is this will somehow be manipulated as good news that the mainstream media can run with. We can picture the headlines now: “Foreclosures down 90% in 4th quarter 2010.”

This may sound good if you’re a politician trying to convince the masses that your policies are working.

But the flip side to the coin is that sales of foreclosed homes are actually about 1/3 of the existing real estate market.

‘A Complete Housing Market Collapse’ as Foreclosure Debacle May Cause 30% Plunge in Real Estate Sales.

via FDIC’s Bair Says Real Estate Crucial To Entire Economy – $3.5 Trillion In Mortgages At Risk Of Default | Problem Bank List.

Without an economic incentive to foreclose, it would not be in the bank shareholders best interests to pursue foreclosure even though borrowers clearly defaulted & owe money to the lender. The economics of distressed assets in mortgage and commercial banking are quickly changing. I am quite open to discussing this in the mainstream media if any are interested in hearing the “Truth go Viral!”

via Banks Will Be Forced to Forgo Certain Foreclosures, Even If the Borrower Has Admittedly Defaulted! | zero hedge.

After suspending foreclosures in order to review cases that may be flawed by procedural errors or fraud, major mortgage companies have injected new uncertainty into the already weak housing market. While few of the homeowners under scrutiny are likely to avoid foreclosure, the freeze adds additional confusion and delays recovery of the troubled housing sector, according to Wharton faculty and real estate analysts.

The foreclosure flap is the most recent of many setbacks for the troubled industry, even as a new generation of potential buyers is rethinking the traditional dream of homeownership. “Buying a home doesn’t make sense for a large proportion of the population,” says Wharton real estate professor Fernando Ferreira, noting that ownership reduces the flexibility to pursue work in other regions and ties up cash in a down payment that might be used for better investments. “We forgot these lessons in the housing boom. But I think the new generation is learning them — at least for the next five to 10 years.”

The Walls Keep Tumbling Down: Foreclosure Flap and Other Housing Industry Woes – Knowledge@Wharton.

Amid evidence of sham documents and widespread paperwork gaffes, if not systemic fraud that increasingly looks like it may be terrifically deep, Bank of America recently halted all foreclosure proceedings around the country. That followed similar announcements from the home-loan giants JPMorgan Chase and GMAC.

But Wall Street does not sympathize. “You had people putting zero down to get massive houses they couldn’t afford to be in,” he said Monday morning, “but now they want to stay. And the government wants to let them stay, because they’re voters.” A few hours later, the Goldman Sachs arm Litton Loan Servicing said it had suspended certain foreclosure proceedings, too. “Talk about a financial scandal,” a Wall Street Journal editorial this weekend joked. “A consumer borrows money to buy a house, doesn’t make the mortgage payments and then loses the house in foreclosure—only to learn that the wrong guy at the bank signed the foreclosure paperwork. Can you imagine?”

The Foreclosure Fiasco and Wall Street’s Shrug | The New York Observer.

Why you shouldn’t be overly optimistic about real estate right now

After years of hearing how home prices are plummeting and foreclosures are mounting, consumers want to feel hopeful about the housing market — but maybe they’re being too optimistic.

In a presentation to the National Association of Real Estate Editors in Austin, Texas, last week, Stan Humphries, Zillow.com’s chief economist, pointed to four myths he said consumers are latching on to as they try to make sense of recent housing statistics.

via The Housing-Market Recession Is Not Over.